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JPMorgan Chase says spending on its credit cards for hotels, travel, and entertainment venues has rebounded this month, after falling in December.
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Americans are already showing signs of heading back out to restaurants and movie theaters as the huge jump in omicron infections has started to decline. Still, last month’s drop in consumer spending is likely to be temporary. Higher prices may be weighing on some Americans’ willingness to spend. The company anticipates price increases for chemicals and other commodities this year. Likewise, Procter & Gamble said last week that it plans to raise prices for detergents like Tide, Gain, and Downy and for personal care products. On Thursday, McDonald’s said that while sales last year grew at a healthy pace, higher costs for food and paper products and the need to raise pay to attract and keep workers eroded profits even after it had raised prices 6% last year. The PCE index tracks actual purchases consumers make each month, while the CPI follows a fixed market basket of goods.Įarlier this month, the government said the CPI jumped 7% last year, also the fastest pace in nearly four decades. Though the consumer price index is a better-known barometer, the Fed tends to track the PCE in setting its interest rate policies. The inflation figure that the government reported Friday is its personal consumption expenditures index. While rising wages are good for employees, they can also elevate inflation if they aren’t offset by efficiency gains. Powell has said that a sharp rise in pay and benefits, reported in November, was a key reason why the Fed began shifting its policy toward higher interest rates. But over the past three months, the increase slowed from 1.3% to 1% and dropped even more for a category that includes restaurant and hotel workers. That was the biggest rise in two decades. The Labor Department said that workers’ salaries and benefits jumped 4% last year.
Such a “wage-price spiral,” which the United States hasn’t experienced since the 1970s, can make inflation difficult to cool.Ī separate report Friday provided some signs of cooling on that front.
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Powell also said the Fed is increasingly focused on the question of whether rising wages are acting as a primary driver of inflation, by forcing companies to charge more to cover their higher labor costs. He cautioned that higher prices “have now spread to a broader range of goods and services,” after initially affecting sectors of the economy, like factory-made products for homes, that were most disrupted by the pandemic. Speaking at a news conference, Powell acknowledged that inflation has gotten “slightly worse” in the past month. Besides raising interest rates, Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the Fed will move to shrink its huge $8.9 trillion of bond holdings this year, another step that will likely tighten credit, slow spending and potentially weaken the economy.
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